¿Las criptomonedas sostenibles son inmunes a la incertidumbre política? Revelando las implicaciones asimétricas de la incertidumbre climática y de la política económica global para las criptomonedas verdes
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Resumen
Los avances en tecnologías blockchain y las crecientes incertidumbres ambientales y económicas nos llevaron a investigar el impacto de la incertidumbre de la política climática (IPC) y la incertidumbre de la política económica global (IPEG) en cinco criptomonedas verdes —ADA, EOS, IOTA, XLM, XTZ— seleccionadas en función de la eficiencia energética y los procesos de minería. Se examinó el impacto a corto y largo plazo de activos alternativos en estas criptomonedas mediante un modelo autorregresivo con rezagos distribuidos no lineal. A largo plazo, estas criptomonedas se ven afectadas negativamente por la IPC y la IPEG, lo que cuestiona su potencial de refugio seguro. A corto plazo, ADA, EOS y XLM comparten una relación asimétrica positiva con la IPC, mientras que todas las criptomonedas tienen una relación asimétrica negativa con la IPEG. Por lo tanto, a corto plazo, ADA, EOS y XLM pueden considerarse un refugio seguro. Tanto a corto como a largo plazo, los bonos verdes ejercen un impacto positivo, mientras que las tasas de interés, el S&P 500 y el índice del oro tienen un impacto negativo en estas criptomonedas. A corto plazo, el bitcoin comparte una relación negativa con EOS, IOTA y XTZ y una relación positiva con ADA y XLM. A largo plazo, exhibe una correlación positiva con todas las criptomonedas verdes. El USD comparte una relación positiva a corto plazo y una relación negativa a largo plazo con todas las criptomonedas verdes. Los hallazgos tienen implicaciones prácticas para la construcción de carteras y las transacciones de los inversores en el mercado de criptomonedas verdes.
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