How to Cite
Carrasco C. A., & Tovar-García E. D. (2020). Determinants of Mexico’s Bilateral Trade Balance: Income, Exchange Rate, and Export Composition. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 259-276. Retrieved from


Using dynamic panel data models, this paper studies the determinants of Mexico’s bilateral trade balance with 39 trade partners from 1990 to 2016. The literature points to income and real exchange rate as key independent variables. This study includes export composition as an explanatory variable (a previously neglected aspect). Results differ from other researches: there is no robust evidence on the effect of income; there is evidence of the association between bilateral balance and real exchange rate; and there is a weak positive link with exports consisting of high-tech goods, partially explaining Mexico’s persistent trade deficit. 


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