Cómo citar
Carrasco , C. A., & Tovar García , E. D. (2019). Determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México : ingreso, tipo de cambio y composición de las exportaciones. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 11(2), 259-276. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.3

Resumen

En este artículo se utilizan modelos dinámicos con datos de panel para estudiar los determinantes del balance comercial bilateral de México con 39 socios comerciales en el periodo 1990-2016. La literatura señala al ingreso y al tipo de cambio real como las variables independientes clave. Asimismo, se incluye la composición de las exportaciones como variable explicativa (algo ignorado previamente). Los resultados difieren de otras investigaciones: no se encuentra evidencia robusta sobre el efecto del ingreso, hay evidencia de la importancia del tipo de cambio real y se encuentra un nexo positivo, aunque débil, con las exportaciones consistentes de bienes de alta tecnología, lo cual explica parcialmente el persistente déficit comercial de México.

Licencia

Derechos de autor 2019 Carlos Alberto Carrasco, Edgar Demetrio Tovar García

Creative Commons License
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.

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