Inteligencia artificial y desempleo: efecto moderador de la economía de aglomeración en países con diferentes niveles de renta
Patricia Hernández Medina
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Resumen
El presente estudio analiza el efecto de la adopción de la inteligencia artificial (IA) sobre el desempleo en países con distintos niveles de renta, teniendo en cuenta dos factores moderadores clave: el acceso a internet y la densidad poblacional. Para ello, se estimaron modelos de datos de panel para 61 países durante el período 2021-2024. Se utilizó el Índice Global de IA como medida del desarrollo tecnológico, mientras que la tasa de desempleo se utilizó como variable dependiente. Además, se incluyeron variables de control relacionadas con el desarrollo económico, las instituciones y la educación. Los resultados indican que, en los países de ingreso alto, el uso de la IA tiene un efecto negativo y estadísticamente significativo sobre el desempleo. En contraste, en países de ingreso medio y bajo, el impacto de la IA es menos claro y no resulta significativo. Este efecto se ve reforzado cuando el uso de la IA se acompaña de una mejor infraestructura tecnológica, la cual se mide por el acceso a internet. Sin embargo, la densidad poblacional no ejerce un efecto moderador significativo en la relación entre la IA y el desempleo, especialmente en economías menos desarrolladas.
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