This journal is licensed by a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International. For the CC licenses, the principle isthe creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without opposing it, conscious of its importance in our culture. The content of the articles is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, to the journal or the university. It allows the transmission and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content, with academic, scientific, cultural ends, provided acknowledgment of the respective source. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes.
They journal does not charge authors for submission or publication.
Abstract
This document aims to establish whether the inflation targeting strategy modified the economic structure in Colombia, causing a structural change in it. To do this, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) and, subsequently, two structural change tests were used: the Chow test and the maximum likelihood test. A VAR model with four variables was estimated for the period 1995M04 to 2015M05. The regression results allow concluding that the adoption of the inflation targeting strategy did represent a structural change for the Colombian economy and it helped to maintain a low and stable inflation.
References
Agénor, P-R. y Montiel, P (1999). Development macroeconomics. Nueva Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Allsopp, C. y Vines, D. (2000). The assessment: macroeconomic policy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16(4), 1-32.
Angeriz, A. y Arestis, IP (2009). Objetivo de inflación: evaluación de la evidencia. Investigación Económica, 68, 21-46.
Bai, J. y Perron, P (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1-22
Ball, L. (1999). Policy rules for open economies En J. Taylor (Ed), Monetary policy rules. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ball, L. y Sheridan, N. (2005). Does inflation targeting matter? Chicago: Universidad de Chicago.
Barro, R. J. y Gordon, D. B. (1983). Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(1), 101-121.
Bernanke, B. S., Laubach, T, Mishkin, F. S. y Posen, A. S. (2001). Inflation targeting: Lessons from the international experience. Nueva Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Candelon, B. y Lütkepohl, H. (2001). On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models. Economics Letters, 73, 155-160.
Clavijo, S., Vera, A. y Vera, N. (2015). Política monetaria: reglas y discreción. Panorama Económico, 23, 31-38.
Cukierman, A. (2002). Are contemporary central banks transparent about economic models and objectives and what difference does it make? Recuperado de https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/02/07/15-36Cukierman.pdf
García, C. (2000). Chilean stabilization policy during the 1990. Los Angeles: Universidad de California.
Giraldo, A., Misas, M. y Villa, E. (2012). Reconstructing Colombia's Recent History of Monetary Policy from 1990 to 2010. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 30(67).
Gómez, J. (2006). La política monetaria en Colombia. Bogotá: Banco de la República.
Goodfriend, M. y King, R. (1997). The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, 231-296.
Hamann, F., Hofstetter, M. y Urrutia, M. (2014). Inflation targeting in Colombia, 2002-12, Recuperado de https://www.questia.com/library/journal/1P3-3461526991/inflation-targeting-in-colombia-2002-12
Honda, Y. (2000). Some tests on the effects of inflation targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK. Economics Letters, 66, 1-6.
Huh, C. (1996). Some evidence on the efficacy of the UK inflation targeting regime: An out-of-sample forecast approach. International Discussion Papers, 565.
Inclán, C. y Tiao, G. C. (1994). Use of cumulative sums of squares for retrospective detection of changes of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89(427), 913-923.
Jordà, O. (2005). Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American Economic Review, 95(1), 161-182.
Jordà, O. (2009). Simultaneous confidence regions for impulse responses. Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(3), 629-647.
Kamal, M. (2010). Inflation targeting in Brazil, Chile and South Africa: An empirical investigation of their monetary policy framework. Recuperado de https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/133018/wp1004.pdf?sequence=1
Kamil, H., Pulido, J. y Torres, J. (2010). El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia, Borradores de Economía, 609.
Kuttner, K. N. y Posen, A. S. (1999). Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central banking behavior. Recuperado de https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/iiewpaper/wp99-10.htm
Kydland, F. E. y Prescott, E. C. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 473-492.
Lane, T y Van Den Heuvel, S. (1998). The United Kingdom's experience with inflation targeting (Working Paper 98/87). Washington: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
Londoño. A., Tamayo, J. y Velasquez, C. (2012). Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 30(68), 15-71.
Masson, P, Savastano, M. y Sharma, S. (1997). The scope for inflation targeting in developing countries (Working paper 97/130). Washington: Fondo Monetario Internacional.
McCallum, B. T (1984). Credibility and monetary policy price stability and public policy. Recuperado de https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/1984/S84mccal.PDF
Mishkin, F. y Posen, A. S. (1997). Inflation Targeting: lessons from four countries (NBER Working Paper 6126). Recuperado de https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/nbrnberwo/6126.htm
Perron, P (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
Perrotini, I. (2014). Precios de activos y política monetaria en la nueva síntesis neoclásica. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas, 9(1), 89-102.
Rodríguez, H. (2011). Estudio del fenómeno de inflación importada vía precios del petróleo y su aplicación al caso colombiano mediante el uso de modelos VAR para el periodo 2000-2009. Estudios Gerenciales, 27(121), 79-97.
Romer, D. (2000). Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(2), 149-69.
Svensson, L. E. (2000). Open-economy inflation targeting. Journal of International Economics, 50(1), 155-183.
Taylor, J.B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Taylor, J.B. (2000a). Teaching modern macroeconomics at the principles level. American Economic Review, 90(2), 90-94.
Taylor, J, B., (2000b). Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms. European Economic Review, 44, 1389-408.
Urrutia, M. (2006). Cambio en los instrumentos de política monetaria. Coyuntura Económica, 35 (2), 93-100.