Implicancias de la inclusión financiera y el empleo informal en la pobreza monetaria de los departamentos del Perú

Abstract

Despite the sustained growth of Peru's GDP in the last 20 years, Monetary Poverty is still the main economic and social problem, this phenomenon extends to 2 important factors such as financial inclusion and informal employment that have implications for sustainability of the driving mechanisms of economic growth to alleviate poverty. Using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) econometric model with fixed effects (FEGLS) to control for heterogeneous effects among Peruvian departments during the 2010-2019 period, this paper empirically assesses the impact of financial inclusion and informal employment in monetary poverty. The empirical results show that, the expansion of financial inclusion would benefit the reduction of monetary poverty, with respect to informal employment it is revealed that there is a negative relationship, it is determined that the development of informal employment is associated with the reduction of poverty, but it is not determining for your alleviation.

Keywords:

Inequality informal emplyment financial inclusion poverty health insurance

References

Alaimo, V., Bosch, M., Gualavisí, M. y Villa, J. (2017). Medición del Costo del Trabajo Asalariado en América Latina y el Caribe [Nota Técnica IDB-TN-1291]. Washington: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.

Ahluwalia, S., Carter, N. y Chenery, H. (1979). Growth and Poverty in Developing Countries. En H. Chenery (Ed.), Structural Chance and Development Policy. Nueva York: Oxford University Press.

Amuedo-Dorantes, C. (2004). Determinants and Poverty Implications of Informal Sector Work in Chile. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 52(2), 349-368. https://doi.org/10.1086/380926

Arvin-Rad, H., Basu, A. K. y Willumsen, M. (2010). Economic Reform, Informal-Formal Sector Linkages and Intervention in the Informal Sector in Developing Countries: A Paradox. International Review of Economics and Finance, 19(4), 662-670.

Banco Mundial. (2020a). Tasa de recuento de pobreza de $ 5,50 al día. https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.UMIC?locations=PE

Balboni, C., Bandiera, O., Burgess, R., Ghatak, M. y Heil, A. (2020). Why Do People Stay Poor? [STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 067]. Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.

Banerjee, A. y Duflo, E. (2011). Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty. Nueva York: Public Affairs.

Banerjee, A., Breza, E., Duflo, E. y Kinnan, C. (2019). Can Microfinance Unlock a Poverty Trap Some Entrepreneurs? [Working Paper 26346]. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. DOI 10.3386/w26346

Baum, C. (2001). Residual Diagnostics for Cross-Section Time Series Regression Models. The Stata Journal, 1(1), 101-104. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0100100108

Blau, B. M. (2018). Income Inequality, Poverty, and the Liquidity of Stock Markets. Journal of Development Economics, (130), 113-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.10.006

Boitano G. y Abanto, D. F. (2020). Desafíos de las políticas de inclusión financiera en el Perú. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, 12(1), 89-117. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v12.n1.2020.3177

Brown, D., McGranahan, G. y Dodman, D. (2014). Urban Informality and Building a More Inclusive, Resilient and Green Economy [IIED Working Paper]. Londresn: International Institute for Environment and Development.

Canelas, C. (2019). Informality and Poverty in Ecuador. Small Business Economics, 53(4), 1097-1115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0102-9

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Beck, T. y Honohan, P. (2008). Finance for all? Policies and Pitfalls in Expanding Access. Washington: World Bank.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A. y Levine, R. (2009). Finance and Inequality: Theory and Evidence. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 1(1), 287-318.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D. y Van Oudheusden, P. (2015). The Global Findex Database 2014: Measuring Financial Inclusion around the World [Policy Research Working Paper WPS 7255]. Washington: World Bank.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S., y Hess, J. (2018). The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution. Washington: World Bank

Devincienti, F., Groisman, F. y Poggi, A. (2009). Informality and poverty: Are these processes dynamically interrelated? Evidence from Argentina [Working Papers 146]. ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

Dollar, D. y Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is Good for the Poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), 195-225.

Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Fields, G. S. (1975). Rural–Urban Migration, Urban Unemployment and Underemployment, and Job-Search Activity in LDCs. Journal of Development Economics, 2(2), 165-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(75)90014-0

Fouejieu, A., Sahay, R., Cihak, M. y Chen, S. (2020). Financial Inclusion and Inequality: A Cross-Country Analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 29(8), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2020.1785532

Galvin, R. (2019). Letting the Gini out of the Fuel Poverty Bottle? Correlating Cold Homes and Income Inequality in European Union countries. Energy Research & Social Science, (58). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101255

Greene, W. (2008). Análisis econométrico. Madrid: Prentice Hall.

Gutiérrez-Romero, R. y Ahamed, M. (2020). COVID-19 Response Needs to Broaden Financial Inclusion to Curb the Rise in Poverty. World Development. https://doi.

org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105229

Honohan, P. y King, M. (2012). Cause and effect of financial access: Crosscountry evidence from the finscope surveys. In R. Cull, Demirguc-Kunt, M. Asli, y Jonathan (Eds.), Banking the World: Empirical foundations of financial incl1usion (pp. 45-84). Cambridge: MIT Press.

International Labour Office. (2013). Women and men in the informal economy: A statistical picture. Geneva: ILO and WIEGO.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2019). Producción y Empleo Informal en el Perú: Cuenta Satélite de la Economía Informal 2007-2018. Lima: INEI. https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1701/libro.pdf

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020a). Evolución de la Pobreza Monetaria 2008-2019. Lima: INEI. https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/cifras_de_pobreza/informe_pobreza2019.pdf

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020b). Microdatos, ENAHO-Empleo e Ingresos 2010-2019. Lima: INEI. http://iinei.inei.gob.pe/microdatos/index.htm

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020c). Población afiliada a seguro de salud, según ámbito geográfico. Lima: INEI. http://m.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/sociales/

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020d). Población estimada y proyectada por sexo y tasa de crecimiento, según años calendarios. Lima: INEI. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/poblacion-y-vivienda/

Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020e). Producción y Empleo Informal en el Perú: Cuenta Satélite de la Economía Informal 2007-2019. https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1764/libro.pdf

Jäckle, A. E. y Li, C. A. (2006). Firm Dynamics and Institutional Participation: A Case Study of Informality of Micro Enterprises in Peru. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 54(3), 557–578. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/500027

Jeanneney, S. G. y Kpodar, K. (2011). Financial Development and Poverty Reduction: Can There Be a Benefit Without a Cost? Journal of Development Studies, 47(1), 143-163. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2010.506918

Jütting, J. y de Laiglesia, J. (2009). Is Informal Normal? Towards More and Better Jobs in Developing Countries. OECD Development Centre. https://doi.org/10.1787/19900295

Jalilian, H. y Kirkpatrick, C. (2002). Financial Development and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 7(2), 97-108. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.179

Khan, I., Khan, I., Sayal, A. U. y Khan, M.Z. (2021). Does Financial Inclusion Induce Poverty, Income Inequality, and Financial Stability: Empirical Evidence from the 54 African Countries? Journal of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-07-2020-0317

Kakwani, N. (1993). Performance in Living Standards: An International Comparison. Journal of Development Economics, 41(2), 307-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(93)90061-Q

Kelikume, I. (2021). Digital Financial Inclusion, Informal Economy and Poverty Reduction in Africa. Journal of Enterprising Communities: People and Places in the Global Economy. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEC-06-2020-0124

King, R., y Levine, R. (1993). Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E

Klapper, L., El-Zoghbi, M., y Hess, J. (2016). Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: The Role of Financial Inclusion. https://www.cgap.org/sites/default/files/Working-Paper-Achieving-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Apr-2016_0.pdf

Koomson, I., Villano, R. A. y Hadley, D. (2020). Effect of financial Inclusion on Poverty and vulnerability to Poverty: Evidence Using a Multidimensional Measure of Financial Inclusion. Social Indicators Research, 149(2), 613-639. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02263-0

León, J. (2019). Capital humano y pobreza regional en Perú. Región y Sociedad, (31). https://doi.org/10.22198/rys2019/31/1058

Llamas, R. y Hernández, J. (2020). Multidimensional Poverty and the Labor Market in Mexico. Cuadernos de Economía, 39(79), 139-165. https://doi.org/10.15446/cuad.econ.v39n79.71201

Loayza, N. V., Serven, L. y Sugawara, N. (2009). Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean. [Policy Research Working Paper 4888]. Washington: World Bank.

Loayza, N. (2020). Costs and Trade-Offs in the Fight Against the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Developing Country Perspective [Research & Policy Briefs 35]. Washington: World Bank.

Mader, P. (2018). Contesting Financial Inclusion. Development and Change, 49(2), 461-483. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12368

Maloney, W. F. (2004). Informality revisited. World Development, 32(7),1159-1178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.01.008

Mahdi, A. (2010). Poverty and Informality: A Restraining or Constructive Relationship? [Working Paper 569]. Economic Research Forum.

Marjit, S. y Maiti, D. S. (2006). Globalization, Economic Reform and Informal Labor. En B. Guha-Khasnobis y R. Kanbur (Eds.), Informal Labor markets and Development. Nueva York: Palgrave MacMillan.

Maurizio, R. (2012). Labour Informality in Latin America: The Case of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Peru [Working Paper 165]. Brooks World Poverty Institute.

Meagher, K. (2013). Unlocking the Informal Economy: A Literature Review on Linkages between Formal and Informal Economies in Developing Countries [Working Paper 27]. WIEGO.

Nabi, A., Shahid, Z., Mubashir, K. Ali, A., Iqbal, A. y Zaman, K. (2020). Relationship between Population Growth, Price Level, Poverty Incidence, and Carbon Emissions in a Panel of 98 Countries. Environmental Science Pollution Research, (27), 31778-31792. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08465-1

Neaime, S. y Gaysset, I. (2018). Financial Inclusion and Stability in MENA: Evidence from Poverty and Inequality. Finance Research Letters, (24), 230-237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.09.007

Omar, M. A. y Inaba, K. (2020). Does Financial Inclusion Reduce Poverty and Income Inequality in Developing Countries? A Panel Data Analysis. Economic Structures, 9(37). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00214-4

Ozgur, G., Elgin, C. y Elveren, A. Y. (2021). Is Informality a Barrier to Sustainable Development? Sustainable Development, 29(1), 45-65. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2130 58. Park, C. Y. y Mercado, R. (2015). Financial Inclusion, Poverty, and Income Inequality in Developing Asia [Paper Series 426]. Philipiness: Asian Development Bank Economics Working.

Park, C. Y. y Mercado, R. J. V. (2018). Financial Inclusion: New Measurement and Cross-Country Impact Assessment [ADB Economics Working Paper Series]. https://www.adb.org/publications/financial-inclusion-newmeasurement-cross-country-impact-assessment

Parks, R. W. (1967). Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations when Disturbances are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62(318), 500-509. https://doi.org/10.2307/2283977

Perry, G. E., Maloney, W. F., Arias, O. S., Fajnzylber, P., Mason, A. D. y Saavedra-Chanduvi, J. (2007). Informality: Exit and Exclusion. Washington: World Bank.

Polloni-Silva, E., da Costa, N., Moralles, H. y Neto, M. (2021). Does Financial Inclusion Diminish Poverty and Inequality? A Panel Data Analysis for Latin American Countries. Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02730-7

Quispe, M. y Roca, R. (2019). Determinantes de la pobreza en el Perú bajo el enfoque de activos. Pensamiento Crítico, 24(1), 55-78. https://doi.org/10.15381/pc.v24i1.16559

Rudrani, B. e Ila, P. (2016). Financial Inclusion, Productivity Shocks, and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies. The World Bank Economic Review, 30(1), 171-201. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv029

Santana Félix, E. G. y Belo, T. F. (2019). The Impact of Microcredit on Poverty Reduction in Eleven Developing Countries in South-east Asia. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, (52). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2019.07.003

Sarma, M. (2008). Index of Financial Inclusion [Working Paper 215]. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. http://icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper_215.pdf

Siggel, E. (2010). The Indian Informal Sector: The Impact of Globalization and Reform. International Labour Review, 149(1), 93-105. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1564-913X.2010.00077.x

Sinding, S. (2009). Population, Poverty and Economic Development. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 364(1532), 3023-3030. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2009.014569.

Smith, A. (1776). An Enquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: Methuen y Co.

Superintendencia de Banca, Seguros y AFP (2020). Reportes de indicadores de Inclusión Financiera. Lima: SBS. http://www.sbs.gob.pe/inclusion-financiera/Cifras/Indicadores

Torres, R. M. (2020). Poverty and labor Informality in Colombia. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 10(1), 1105-1129. https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0006

Townsend, P. (1979). Poverty in the United Kingdom. London: Allen Lane and Penguin Books.

Vacaflores, D. E. (2018). Are Remittances Helping Lower Poverty and Inequality Levels in Latin America? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, (68), 254-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.09.001

Valenzuela, I. (2013). Activos y contexto económico: Factores relacionados con la pobreza en el Perú. Working Paper series 013. Lima: BCRP.

Valodia, I. y Devey, R. (2010). Formal-Informal Economy Linkages: What Implications for Poverty in South Africa? Law, Democracy and Development, (14), 1-26. DOI: 10.4314/ldd.v14i1.13

Von Fintel, D. y Orthofer, A. (2020). Wealth Inequality and Financial Inclusion: Evidence from South African Tax and Survey Records. Economic Modelling, (91), 568-578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.001

Urbina, D. y Quispe, M. R. (2017). La pobreza monetaria desde la perspectiva de la pobreza multidimensional: el caso peruano. Enfoque, (2), 77-98. http://doi.org/10.26439/enfoque2016.n002.1871

Wooldridge, J. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. MIT Press

##submission.citations.for##