How to Cite
Alvarez, E. ., Brida, J. G., Martínez, M. . ., & Mones , P. . (2022). Complex network analysis: a study of inflation in Uruguay. Revista Finanzas Y Política Económica, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v14.n1.2022.6
License
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

This journal is licensed by a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International. For the CC licenses, the principle isthe creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without opposing it, conscious of its importance in our culture. The content of the articles is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, to the journal or the university. It allows the transmission and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content, with academic, scientific, cultural ends, provided acknowledgment of the respective source. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes. 

Licencia de Creative Commons

They journal does not charge authors for submission or publication.

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the behavior of the price system of the Uruguayan economy, using network analysis to represent the price system that makes up the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Networks were built using annual moving windows between 1997 and 2020, taking as nodes the different classes of goods and services that make up the CPI. The empirical results show that there is a set of central nodes surrounded by other peripheral ones, where the former are characterized by having a similar dynamic to many other nodes in the network, while the latter had an atypical behavior. The empirical results of the work allow to show the volatility in the price dynamics and its relationship with the macroeconomic processes, as well as the changes in the interrelationships between the prices that make up the CPI in Uruguay.

Keywords:

References

Alvarez, E., Brida, J. G., & Mones, P. (2021). Dinámica de la estructura de precios en Uruguay. Rect@: Revista Electrónica de Comunicaciones y Trabajos de ASEPUMA, 22(1), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.24309/recta.2021.22.1.01

Arthur, W. B. (1999). Complexity and the economy. Science, 284(5411), 107-109. 10.1126/science.284.5411.107

Basal, J., Carballo, P., Cuitiño, F., Frache, S., Mourelle, J., Rodríguez, H., Rodríguez, V., y Vicente, L. (2016). Un modelo estocástico de equilibrio general para la economía uruguaya. [Documentos de Trabajo 2016-002]. Montevideo: Banco Central del Uruguay. https://ideas.repec.org/p/bku/doctra/2016002.html

Bergara, M., Dominioni, D., y Licandro, J. A. (1995). Un modelo para comprender la “enfermedad uruguaya”. Revista de Economía, 2(2), 39-76. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mario-Bergara/publication/43235716_Un_Modelo _para_comprender_

la_Enfermedad_Uruguaya/links/544e62d20cf2bca5ce90b13a/Un-Modelo-paracomprender-la-Enfermedad-Uruguaya.pdf

Blanchard, O. (2014). Where danger lurks. Finance & Development, 51(3), 28-31. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475566987.022

Blondel, V. D., Guillaume, J.-L., Lambiotte, R., y Lefebvre, E. (2008). Fast unfolding of communities in large networks. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2008, P10008. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-5468/2008/10/P10008/

meta

Brum, C., Cuitiño, F., Mourelle, J., y Vicente, L. (2012). Modelos multivariados para predecir la inflación en Uruguay. Montevideo: Banco Central del Uruguay. /http://www.bvrie.gub.uy/local/File/JAE/2012/iees03j3221112.pdf.

Brum, C., Román, C., y Willebald, H. (2016). Un enfoque monetario de la inflación en el largo plazo. el caso de Uruguay (1870-2010). El Trimestre Económico, 83(329), 61-98. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v83i329.192

Cancelo, J. R., Fernández, A., Grosskoff, R., Selves, R., y Villamonte, G. (1994). Precios de transables y no transables: un enfoque ARIMA-IA. IX Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay. https://www.bvrie.gub.uy/local/File/JAE/1994/Cancelo y

otros.pdf

Caraballo, M. A., y Dabús, C. (2008). The determinants of relative price variability: further evidence from Argentina. Cuadernos de Economía, 45(132), 235-255. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0717-68212008000200004

Chen, Y. G. (2019). Inflation, inflation expectations, and the Phillips curve. En Technical report, CBO Working Paper 2019-07. Washington: CBO. https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-08/55501-CBO-working-paper-inflation-expectations-andphillips-

curve.pdf

Coibion, O., y Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130306

Coleman, S., García, S., Torres, S., y Vázquez, S. (2010). Una aproximación empírica a la relación entre inflación, pobreza, indigencia y distribución del ingreso en Uruguay 1990-2007. Montevideo: Banco Central de Uruguay.

Csárdi, G., y Nepusz, T. (2006). The Igraph software package for complex network research. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/221995787_The_Igraph_Software_Package_for_Complex_Network_Research

Cuitiño, F., Ganón, E., Tiscordio, I., y Vicente, L. (2010). Modelos univariados de series de tiempo para predecir la inflación de corto plazo. En XXV Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay. https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Comunicaciones/Jornadas%20de%20Economa/iees03j3101010.pdf

Curtin, R. (2009). Inflation expectations and empirical tests. En Inflation Expectations (pp. 34-61). Nueva York: Routledge.

Edmonds, B. (2017). Different modelling purposes. En Simulating Social Complexity (pp. 39-58). Berlín: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66948-9_4

Farmer, J. D. (2012). Economics needs to treat the economy as a complex system. https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/farmer_berlinpaper.pdf

Frache, S., Licandro, G., y Saldain, J. (2017). Variable inflation targets as monetary conditions indexes [Mimeo].

Frache, S., y Lluberas, R. (2019). New information and inflation expectations among firms [BIS Working Paper 781]. https://www.bis.org/publ/work781.pdf

Gao, X., An, H., y Zhong, W. (2013). Features of the correlation structure of price indices. PLoS ONE, 8(4), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061091

Garda, P., Lanzilotta, B., y Lorenzo, F. (2004). Descripción y evaluación de un esquema metodológico para el diagnóstico y predicción de la inflación en Uruguay. En XIX Jornadas de Economía del Banco Central del Uruguay. /https://www.bcu.gub.uy/

Comunicaciones/Jornadas%20de%20Economa/iees03j3440804.pdf

Heymann, D., y Leijonhufvud, A. (1995). High Inflation: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures. The Economic Journal, 106(438). https://doi.org/10.2307/2235546

INE (1997). Nota metodológica: Índice de los Precios del Consumo Base marzo 1997. Reporte técnico. /https://www.ine.gub.uy/web/guest/ipc-indice-de-precios-del-consumo

INE (2010). Nota metodológica: Cambio de base diciembre 2010 [Reporte técnico]. /https://www.ine.gub.uy/web/guest/ipc-indice-de-precios-del-consumo

Licandro, J. A. (2000). The scope for inflation targeting in Uruguay [Reporte técnico]. http://www.lacea.org/pdf/licandro.pdf

McCallum, B. T. (1988). Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy. En Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (vol. 29, pp. 173-203). https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(88)90011-5

Mordecki, G. (2018). Uruguay en democracia: treinta años de evolución económica (1985-2015). Oikos Polis, 3(1), 81-135.

Newman, M. (2010). Networks: An introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199206650.001.0001

Noyola Vázquez, J. (1956). El desarrollo económico y la inflación en México y otros países latinoamericanos. Investigación Económica, 16(4), 603-648.

Olivera, J. H. (1960). La teoría no monetaria de la inflación. El Trimestre Económico, 27(4), 616-628.

Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46(2), 145-154. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928178

Sarantitis, G. A., Papadimitriou, T., y Gogas, P. (2018). A network analysis of the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index. Computational Economics, 51(2), 173-193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-016-9625-9

Sari, N. R., Mahmudy, W. F., y Wibawa, A. P. (2016). Backpropagation on neural network method for inflation rate forecasting in Indonesia. International Journal of Advances in Soft Computing & Its Applications, 8(3), 70-87.

Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. En Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (vol. 39, pp. 195-214). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/016722319390009L

Yukalov, V. I., y Sornette, D. (2014). Self-organization in complex systems as decision making. Advances in Complex Systems, 17(3-4), 1450016. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525914500167

Zacheo, L., y Güenaga, M. (2019). Traspaso de tipo de cambio a precios y relación con la credibilidad de la política monetaria. Technical report. https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Comunicaciones/Jornadas%20de% 20Economa/ZACHEO LAURA 2019 6008.pdf

##submission.citations.for##

Sistema OJS 3 - Metabiblioteca |