PDF (Español (España))
FLIP
This journal is licensed by a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International. For the CC licenses, the principle isthe creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without opposing it, conscious of its importance in our culture. The content of the articles is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, to the journal or the university. It allows the transmission and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content, with academic, scientific, cultural ends, provided acknowledgment of the respective source. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes.
They journal does not charge authors for submission or publication.
Abstract
The target of this paper is to establish whether the fiscal rule could have eventually an impact on the exchange rate so it could ease the effects of the dutch disease. A counter-factual experiment is carried out by simulating the implementation in Colombia during the last thisty years of a fiscal rule alike the one proposed by the Comite Técnico Interinstitucional, through an equilibrium exchange rate model and cointegration analysis in a VEC model. It is foundthat the fiscal rule would actually mitigatethe appreciation, but it could also increase the exchange rate volatility.
References
Allen, P. (1998). The Economic and Policy Implications of the NATREX Approach. En J. Stein & P. R. Allen (Eds.), Fundamental determinants of Exchange Rates (capítulo 1, pp. 1-38). Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online. Recuperado de http://www.oxfordscho-larship.com/
Bouveret, A. & Sterdyniak, H. (2005). Les modèles de taux de change. Équilibre de long cerme, dynamique et hystérèse. Reene de 1’O7CE, 92(2), 243-286. Recuperado de http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/revue/8-93.pdf.
Cano, C. (2010). Regla fiscal y estabilidad macroeconómica en Colombia. Borradores de economía, 607. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra607.pdf.
Clark, P. & McDonald, R. (1998). Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs. EM7 WorLtug tapers, 98(67). Recuperado de http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp9867.pdf
C1avijo, S. b Vera, N. (2011). Tendencias fiscales y reformas estructurales: Colombia 2011-2020. Carta Financiera, 155, 9-16.
Colombia. Congreso de la República. Ley 1473 de 2011 (2011, 5 de julio). Por medio de la cual se establece una regla fiscal y se dictan otras disposiciones.
Duval, R. (2002). What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs. Macroeconomic Approaches. Australian Economics paper, 41(4), 382-403. Recuperado de http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=368504.
Echavarría, J., López, E. & Misas, M. (2008). La tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalinamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC. Ensayos sobre política económica, 36(57), 282-319. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_057-6.pdf.
Echavarría, J., Vásquez, D. & Villamizar, M. (2005). La tasa de cambio real en Colombia ¿Muy lejos del equilibrio? Ensayos sobre política económica, 49, 134-191. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_049-4.pdf.
Égert, B., Halpern, L. & MacDonald, R. (2006). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues. Jonrual of economic Issues, 30(2), 257-324. Recuperado de http://www.oenb.at/en/img/wp106_tcm16-36593.pdf.
Engle, R. & Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Ecouonetrtca, 55(2), 251-276. Recuperado de http://www.jstor.org/.
Equipo de Información y Documentación del Observatorio Nacional de Paz. (2012). Aspectos críticos de la regla fiscal en Colombia: fiscalismo, fundamentalismo financiero y límites al ejercicio de los derechos, Observatorio Nacional de Paz. Recuperado de http://www.planetapaz.org/.
Federici, D. & Gandolfo, G. (2002). Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate. Australian Economics papers, 41(4), 499-518. Recuperado de http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/pls/portal/docs/1/1190576.PDF.
Guerrero, V. (1990). Temporal Disaggregation of Time Series: an ARIMA-Based Approach. International Stastitical Review, 58(1), 29-46. Recuperado de http://www.jstor.org/.
Harvey, J. (1996). Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: a Survey. Journal of post Keynesian Economics, 18(4), 567-583. Recuperado de http://cas.umkc.edu/econ/economics/faculty/wray/631Wray/Week%208%20and%209/harvey.pdf.
Harvey, J. (2001). Exchange Rate Theory and “the Fundamentals”. Journal of post Keynesian Economics, 24 (1), 3-15. Recuperado de http://www.econ.ccu.edu/guinn/econfinmkc/harvey.pdf.
Harvey, J. (2008). Currencies, Capital flows and crises: A post Keynesian analysis of exchanges rate determination, New York: Routledge Advances in Heterodox Economics.
Huertas, C. & Oliveros, H. (2003). Desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia. Ensayo sobre política económica, 43, 32-65. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_043-2.pdf.
Comité técnico interinstitucional (2010, 7 de julio). Regla fiscal para Colombia, Bogotá. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/documentos/publicaciones/otros/regla_fis-cal_2010.pdf.
Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based inference in cointegrated vector autoreguressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kydland, F. & Prescott, E. (1977). Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. The Journal of Political Economy, 85 (3), 473-491. Recuperado de http://www.fep.up.pt/docentes/pcosme/S-E-1/kP-JPE.pdf.
Lim, G. & Stein, J. (1998). The Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate and Current Account in a Small Open Economy: Australia. En J. Stein & P. R. Allen, (Eds.), Fundamental Determinats of Exchange Rates (capítulo 3, pp. 85-126). Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online. Recuperado de http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/.
López, H., Rhena1s, R., Bocero, J., b Vosso, V. (2008). Conveniencia de una reg1a fisca1 de balance estructural para Colombia. Borradores de Ecouonta, 497. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra497.pdf.
Lozano, I. Rincón, H., Sarmienco, W., b Ramos, J. (2008). Regla fiscal cuantitativa para consolidar y blindar las finanzas públicas de Colombia. Revista de economía institucional, 10 (19), 311-352. Recuperado de http://redalyc.uaemex.mx/pdf/419/41901913.pdf.
Meese, R. & Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample? Journal of international economics, 14 (1), 3-24. Recuperado de http://ws1.ad.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/JIE1983.pdf.
Melo, L. & Misas, M. (1992). Desagregación de series temporales: metodología y aplicación al caso del PIB en Colombia. Ensayo sobre política económica, 22, 151-170. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ensayos/pdf/espe_022-6.pdf.
Otero, D. (2010). Una regla fiscal para Colombia: crítica. Economía y desarrollo, 9 (2), 123-133. Recuperado de http://www.fuac.edu.co/download/revista_economica/volumen_9n2/Binder1-154%20arreglada.pdf.
Phillips, P. & Durlauf, S. (1986). Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes. The review of economic studies, 53 (4), 473-495. Recuperado de http://www.jstor.org/.
Rincón, H. (2010). Un análisis comparativo de reglas fiscales cuantitativas. Borradores de Economía, 617. Recuperado de http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra617.pdf.
Sachs, J. b Wyplosz, C. (198¢). La politique budgétaire et le taux de change réel. Annales de L’ENSÉÉ, 53, 63-92. Recuperado de http://www.earth.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Sachs%20Writing/1984/AnnalesDel’Insee_1984_LaPolitiqueBudgetaireEtLeTauxDeChangeReel_Jan-March1984.PDF.
Siregar, R. (2011). The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature. The South East Asian Ceutral Banks ⁄ Research and training centre staff papers, 81. Recuperado de http://www.seacen.org/GUI/pdf/publications/staff_paper/2011/sp81.pdf.
Stein, J. (1998a). The Natural Real Exchange Rate of the United States Dollar, and Determinants of Capital Flows. En J. Stein & P. R. Allen (Eds.), Fundamental determinants Exchange Rates (capítulo 2, pp. 38-84). Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online. Recuperado de http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/.
Stein, J. (1998b). International Finance Theory and Empirical Reality. En J. Stein & P. R. Allen (Eds.), Fundamental determinants of Exchauge Rates (apéndice, pp. 225-254). Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online. Recuperado de http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/.
Stein, J. & Allen, P. R. (Eds.) (1998). Fundamental determinants of Exchauge Rates, Oxford: Oxford Scholarship Online. Recuperado de http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/.
Taylor, L. (2004). Exchange rate complications. En Reconstructing macroeconomics: Structuralist proposals and critiques of the mainstreams (capítulo 8, pp. 307-348). Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Villareal, R., Sarmiento, G. I., Duarte, L. & Rodríguez, N. (2005). Sobre los determinantes de la tasa de cambio real. En apreciación en Colombia, causas, consecuencias y opciones de política, Observatorio de Coyuntura Macroeconómica, Universidad Externado de Colombia. Recuperado de http://portal.uexternado.edu.co/irj/go/km/docs/documents/UExternado/pdf/1_facultadEconomia/MEMORIAS%202%20%20APRECIACION%20PRIMER%20SEMESTRE%20DE%202005.pdf.
Wyplosz, C. (2005). Fiscal policy: institutions versus rules. National Institute Economic Review 191, 70-84. Recuperado de http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIWP03-2002.pdf.
##submission.citations.for##
