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Abstract
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic stabilization role of the quantitative fiscal rule submitted by the national government in July 2010, if it is adopted. This role is crucial to the case of countries with rich natural resources. The forecasting exercises that are developed in this paper show how the fiscal rule reacts to three alternative scenarios of economic growth: First, when it grows to its potential level; second, when there is a deep recession like happened at the end of the nineties; and third, when there is an expansion phase as it did between 1993 and 1997. The rule will modify the pro-cyclicality management that historically the government has given the country’s public finances.
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