Sectoral and Policy Shocks on Corporate Tax Revenues in Colombia: A VAR Analysis (1995–2023)
Andrés Felipe Rodríguez Vanegas
Pablo Santofimio Salinas
Carlos David Cardona-Arenas
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This journal is licensed by a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International. For the CC licenses, the principle isthe creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without opposing it, conscious of its importance in our culture. The content of the articles is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, to the journal or the university. It allows the transmission and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content, with academic, scientific, cultural ends, provided acknowledgment of the respective source. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes.
They journal does not charge authors for submission or publication.
Abstract
This study aims to analyse the response of corporate income tax collection in Colombia to shocks in macroeconomic variables, economic policies, and sectoral performance (1995–2023). Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, we examine impulse-response functions and variance decomposition to trace the temporal effects of these shocks. Robustness checks have been carried out using forecasting tests and tested by estimating impulse‑response functions via Local Projections.
The results reveal that the income tax collection reacts positively to shocks in high-productivity, high-output sectors like industry, commerce, professional services, and public administration. In contrast, financial and real estate sectors show no effects. Policy variables, especially the tax rate and monetary policy interest rate influence significantly the tax collection in the short-term. Variance decomposition indicates a strong inertial component in revenue collection. The tax rate and the monetary policy interest rate each explain 9% of its variability. Together, key sectors such as arts activities, public administration and defense, professional and technical activities, construction, and manufacturing account for approximately 35% of the dynamics in revenue collection.
References
Agénor PR, Montiel PJ (2008) Development Macroeconomics. Princeton University Press. https://home.cerge-ei.cz/gurgen/teaching/files/agenor%20devmacro.pdf
Aljandali A, Tatahi M (2018) Economic and Financial Modelling with EViews: A Guide for Students and Professionals. Academic Press.
Avellaneda Bautista CA, Trujillo Rendón R (2008) Impuestos Latinoamericanos Bolivia, Colombia, Panamá Impuesto Al Valor Agregado E Impuesto Sobre La Renta. Criterio Libre N° 8:87-103. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4547091
Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (2002). An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329–1368. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4132480
Banco de la República de Colombia (2025) Inflación y Meta. https://suameca.banrep.gov.co/estadisticas-economicas/#/informacionserie/100001/inflacion_y_meta
Bejarano Navarro HD (2014) Tributación En Colombia: La Tasa Óptima Que Maximiza El Recaudo Tributario. Revista Estrategia Organizacional 3. https://doi.org/10.22490/25392786.1506
Besley, Timothy, and Torsten Persson. 2014. "Why Do Developing Countries Tax So Little?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 28 (4): 99–120. DOI:10.1257/jep.28.4.99
Bolaños L (2019) El Impuesto De Renta En Colombia: Una Mirada Desde El Gasto Tributario. Boletín Mexicano de Derecho Comparado 52(155). https://doi.org/10.22201/iij.24484873e.2019.155.14946
Busato F, Chiarini B, Marchetti E (2011) Indeterminacy, underground activities and tax evasion. Economic Modelling 28(3):831-844.
Calderón EL (2015) Análisis Comparativo De Los Impuestos Nacionales De Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador Y Perú. Ciencia Unisalle. https://ciencia.lasalle.edu.co/server/api/core/bitstreams/f55207fa-745b-452c-a58f-c274e9b2d020/content
Caporale G.M., Tapia S.G, Gil-Alana L.A, Persistence in Tax Revenues: Evidence from Some OECD Countries. J. Quant. Econ. 22, 475–491 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-024-00386-x
Cardona-Arenas C, Osorio-Barreto D, Sotelo-Zemanate DY (2020) Desempeño de las subregiones del departamento del Cauca y su contribución al desarrollo territorial (2015-2017). Rev Fac Cienc Econ Investig 28(2):161179. https://doi.org/10.18359/rfce.4645
Cardona-Arenas C, Sierra L (2020) Impacto de la política monetaria en el equilibrio del mercado de trabajo: países de la Alianza del Pacífico. Revista Finanzas Polít Econ 12(2):491-521. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2020.3213
Cardona-Arenas, C. D., Sierra Suárez, L. P., Trillas Jane, F. (2024). Revealing the New Nexus in Urban Unemployment Dynamics: The Relationship between Institutional Variables and Long-Term Unemployment in Colombia. Economics, 18(1), 20220115. https://doi.org/10.1515/econ-2022-0115
Cardona-Arenas C, Pablo S, Casas D, Sepulveda A (2023) Pronósticos de volatilidad del tipo de cambio: Un enfoque vectorial aplicado al caso de México. Panorama Econ 31(3):238-264. https://doi.org/10.32997/pe-2023-4706
Cardona-Arenas, C Sierra L (2024) Remittances, Nonlabor Income As A Source Of Hysteresis In Unemployment In Colombia, 2010–2020. Latin Am Res Rev 59:315-340. https://doi.org/10.1017/lar.2023.57
Castañeda V, Villabona J (2020) El Impacto Del Impuesto Sobre La Renta En La Inversión Empresarial En Colombia. Apunt Cens 39(70):183-205. https://doi.org/10.19053/01203053.v39.n70.2020.10493
Cui, Wei and Hicks, Jeffrey and Wiebe, Michael, Administrative Procedures as Tax Enforcement Tools (February 22, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4615247 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4615247
Castro B, Díaz J, Gutiérrez P, Hansen E (2024) On The Robustness Of The Relationship Between Tax Progressivity, Growth, And Inequality In The US. Econ Lett 241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111807
Canova F (2007) Methods for applied macroeconomic research. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400841028
Cetrángolo O, Gómez-Sabaini J (2006) Tributación en América Latina: en busca de una nueva agenda de reformas. CEPAL Santiago de Chile. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/13049/1/S060055_es.pdf
Connor TS, O'Connor TM (2009) Tax exemption as a marketing tool: the Irish republic and profits derived from artistic creativity. J Bus Res 62(10):1002-1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2008.06.011
Departamento Administrative Nacional de Estadística (DANE) (2025) Cuentas nacionales trimestrales: PIB información técnica. https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/cuentas-nacionales/cuentas-nacionales-trimestrales/pib-informacion-tecnica
Dirección de Impuestos y Aduanas Nacionales (DIAN) (2025) Estadísticas de recaudo. https://www.dian.gov.co/dian/cifras/paginas/estadisticasrecaudo.aspx
Drenik A, Perez B D (2021) Domestic Price Dollarization in Emerging Economies. J Monet Econ 38-55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.07.002
Fiorio . V, Santoro A, (2023). Tax enforcement activities: Evidence on the impact of a threat-of-audit letter. Economic and Political Studies, 12(2), 171–187. https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2023.2192559
García Ocampo T L, Castellanos Sabogal Y T (2019) Tributación y pobreza en Colombia: un análisis desde la evolución del impuesto de renta y el índice de pobreza monetaria. Rev Activos 16(30). https://portal.amelica.org/amelica/activos/nota.aspx?ID=2921265004
Giannone D, Lenza M, Primiceri GE (2015) Prior selection for vector autoregressions. Rev Econ Stat 97(2):436-451. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00483
Gomez Rivas L (2013) Adam Smith: Algunos antecedentes olvidados. Procesos Mercado Rev Econ Polít 73-98. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4547537
Gómez J, Morales P (2009) Bank lending channel of monetary policy: evidence for Colombia, using a firms’ panel. Borr Econ 545. https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/86402554/borr545-libre.pdf?1653392187=
Gonzales Rodríguez M (2023) Implicación de la tasa de tributación depurada (TTD) en el impuesto de renta de las personas jurídicas. U. Cooperativa de Colombia. https://repository.ucc.edu.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12494/53536/Implication_TTD_2023.pdf?sequence=1
House C L, Shapiro M D (2008) Temporary investment tax incentives: theory with evidence from bonus depreciation. Am Econ Rev 98(3):737–768. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.3.737
Herrera Saavedra J, Villar Otálora J, Campo Robledo J (2022) Tributación en Colombia: aproximación teórica y empírica de la curva de Laffer. Rev Econ Instit 24:117-143. https://hal.science/hal-03114284
Jordà Ò, Taylor AM (2024) Local projections (Working Paper No. 32822). Natl Bur Econ Res. http://www.nber.org/papers/w32822
Kaldor N (1963) Taxation for economic development. J Mod Afr Stud 1:7-23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00001212
Kanga D, Soumare I, Tchakoute Tchuigoua CH (2024) Financial sector development and microcredit to small firms. J Int Financ Mark Inst Money 96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102063
Laffer AB (2004) The Laffer curve: past, present, and future. Heritage Found. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/report/the-laffer-curve-past-present-and-future
Li W, Yu EG (2022) Real estate taxes and home value: evidence from TCJA. Rev Econ Dyn 125-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.02.003
Lopes A, Espanhol LM (2020) The relationship between tax rates and tax revenues in Eurozone member countries—exploring the Laffer curve. Bull Econ Res 121-145. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.12211
Morales Martínez D, Dathein R (2024) Industria y desarrollo: un análisis kaldoriano de la economía colombiana. El Trimestre Econ 91(361):115-157. https://doi.org/10.20430/e.te.v91i361.1789
Muller Durán N (2022) La composición de la capacidad tributaria: evidencia para un panel de países. Invest Econ 63-89. https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2022.319.80790
Muñoz M (2021) COVID en Colombia: una crisis de gobernabilidad y de respuesta. Rev Ciencia Política (Santiago). https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2021005000115
Musgrave RA (1969) Fiscal systems. Yale Univ Press. https://desmarais-tremblay.com/Resources/Musgrave%20Richard%20A.%20and%20Musgrave%20Peggy%20B.%201989%20%281973%29%20Public%20Finance%20in%20Theory%20and%20Practice_5th%20ed.pdf
Parra Jiménez OD, Patiño Jacinto RA (2010) Evasión de impuestos nacionales en Colombia: años 2001-2009. Rev Fac Cienc Econ 18(2):177-198. https://doi.org/10.1 509/90920053010
Peren Arin K, Kaplan S, Polyzos E, Spagnolo N (2024) Stock market responses to monetary policy shocks: firm-level evidence. J Macroecon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103646
Pesaran, H. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters, 58(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00214-0
Rafique R, Nisar A, Shah S S A (2024) Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries. Econ Change Restruct 57:129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09708-8
Rezvanian R, Mehdian S (2024) The impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the efficiency and profitability of the U.S. small banks. Finance Res Lett 67(B):105879. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105879
Perret S, Brys, Bert (2015), OECD Working Paper No. 1204. “Taxation and Investment in Colombia”. https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js1pz3d0j8r-en
Tang M (2024) Industrialize with tax structure change: agricultural tax abolition and local industrial growth in China. China Econ Rev. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2024.102339
Throsby D (2012) The economics of cultural policy. Cambridge Univ Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511845253
Villabona Robayo J O, Quimbay C J (2017) Tasas efectivas del impuesto de renta para sectores de la economía colombiana entre el 2000 y el 2015. Innovar 27(66):91-108. https://doi.org/10.15446/in-novar.v27n66.66805
