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Anzoategui Zapata, J. C., & Galvis Ciro, J. C. (2024). Efectos de las noticias digitales en el GAP de expectativas de inflación: primeras evidencias para una economía emergente. Revista Finanzas Y Política Económica, 16(2), 441–467. https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v16.n2.2024.5
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Resumen

El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar los efectos de los medios masivos de comunicación digitales en la formación de expectativas de inflación. En particular, este trabajo evalúa los efectos de las noticias digitales sobre la brecha o GAP de expectativas de inflación entre consumidores y expertos en pronóstico. Para ello, como estudio de caso, se utiliza la economía colombiana para el periodo 2010-2018. La metodología empleada consiste en evaluar los efectos de las noticias sobre inflación suministrada por cinco periódicos digitales representativos sobre el GAP de expectativas. Por medio de regresiones econométricas se encuentra que una mayor exposición de los consumidores a medios masivos de comunicación como los periódicos digitales, se convierte en un medio de información útil para su proceso de formación de expectativas de inflación. En particular, las noticias con un tono negativo ejercen mayor incertidumbre y amplifican el GAP, un tono positivo permite mejorar los pronósticos, mientras que las noticias con tono neutro tienden ampliar la brecha.

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