html (Español (España))
PDF (Español (España))
FLIP
XML (Español (España))
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This journal is licensed by a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International. For the CC licenses, the principle isthe creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without opposing it, conscious of its importance in our culture. The content of the articles is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, to the journal or the university. It allows the transmission and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content, with academic, scientific, cultural ends, provided acknowledgment of the respective source. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes.
They journal does not charge authors for submission or publication.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment
(NAIRU), or equilibrium of the labor markets, for the countries that belongs to the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico). The NAIRU movements are estimated for each country. Furthermore, Auto-Regressive Vector Models are used to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on the labor market of each of the PA countries. Results show that monetary policy impacts the NAIRU of Chile, Colombia and Peru. However, monetary policy shocks have not significant impact on the NAIRU of Mexico.
References
Ball, L., Mankiw, N. G. y Nordhaus, W. D. (1999). Aggregate demand and long-run unemployment. Brookings. Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 189-251. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2534680
Ball, L. y Mankiw, N. G. (2002). The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16(4), 115-136. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533002320951000
Basilio, E. (2018). Política fiscal procíclica y estabilidad Monetaria en Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Problemas del Desarrollo, 49(192), 139-167. http://ru.iiec.
unam.mx/id/eprint/4064
Benazić, M. y Rami, J. (2016). Monetary policy and unemployment in Croatia. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 29(1), 1038-1049. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1211955
Blanchard, O. (2003). A conference in honor of James Tobin. Monetary policy and unemployment. En Monetary policy and the labor market (pp. 1-10). Nueva York: New School University. https://economics.mit.edu/files/731
Blanchard, O. (2018). Should we reject the natural rate hypothesis? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1), 97-120. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.1.97
Blanchard, O. y Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis in unemployment. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, 3(1), 288-295. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2035
Blanchard, O. y Wolfers, J. (2000). The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: The aggregate evidence. The Economic Journal, 110(462),
-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00518
Capehart, K. W. (2019). What’s the natural rate of unemployment? Answers from forecasters. International Review of Applied Economics, 33(5) 712-732. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2019.1566446
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) (2004). Una década de desarrollo social en América Latina, 1990-1999. https://www.cepal.org/es/
publicaciones/2382-decada-desarrollo-social-america-latina-1990-1999
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) (2018). Coyuntura laboral en América Latina y el Caribe. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/
handle/11362/44185/1/S1800886_es.pdf
Fisher, I. (1926). A statistical relation between unemployment and price changes. International Labour Review, 13(6), 785-792.
Fontana, G. y Setterfield, M. (2016). Macroeconomic theory and macroeconomic pedagogy. Londres: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-29166-9_1
Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The American Economic Review, 58(March), 269-295. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.151.3712.867-a
Gertler, M. y Karadi, P. (2015). Monetary policy surprises, credit costs and economic activity. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7, 44-76. http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/gertlerm/GertlerKaradi2013Oct3draftd-3.pdf
Heimberger, P., Kapeller, J. y Schütz, B. (2017). The NAIRU determinants: What’s structural about unemployment in Europe? Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(5), 883-908 https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JPOLMOD.2017.04.003
Hodrick, R. J. y Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U. S. business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1-16. https://doi.
org/10.2307/2953682
Horvath, J. y Zhong, J. (2019). Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks. Economic Modelling, 76, 31-49. https://doi.
org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2018.07.017
Karanassou, M., Sala, H. y Snower, D. J. (2003). The European Phillips Curve: Does the NAIRU exist? IZA Discussion Papers, 49(876), 1-30. http://ftp.iza.org/dp876.pdf
Karanassou, M. y Snower, D. J. (1997). Is the natural rate a reference point? European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 559-569. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00022-6
Loría, E., Márquez, J. C. y Ramírez, J. (2008). Cálculo de la NAIRU en México, 1980-2007. Comercio Exterior, 58(8), 630-639. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/
articulo?codigo=2766628
MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618. https://doi.
org/10.2307/2285154
Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. Economica, 25(100), 283.
https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759
Quintero Otero, J. D. (2015). Impactos de la política monetaria y canales de transmisión en países de América Latina con esquema de inflación objetivo. Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 33(76), 61-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ESPE.2015.02.001
Restrepo, J. E. (2008). Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile. En CEMLA, Estimación y Uso de variables no observables en la región (1.a ed., vol. 1, pp. 492-516). Madrid: CEMLA. https://ideas.repec.org/h/cml/incocp/1-16.html
Samaniego, N. (2002). Las políticas de mercado de trabajo en México y su evaluación. Series de la CEPAL, 18, 60. https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/5381
Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores de México. (2018). Alianza del Pacífico seminario: visión prospectiva de la integración latinoamericana y caribeña. Ciudad de México. https://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/presentations/5santiago_mateos.pdf
Sierra, L. P. (2016). ¿Qué tanto afecta Asia a Latinoamérica?: el canal de las materias primas. En Las relaciones económicas entre América Latina y Asia (pp. 1-310). Santiago de Cali: Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/84851647.
pdf#page=60
Sierra, L. P. y Vidal Alejandro, P. (2019). The impact of emerging Asia’s demand on the Pacific Alliance Countries. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 1-19. https://doi. org/10.1080/1540496X.2019.1693362
Snower, D. y Karanassou, M. (2000). Characteristics of unemployment dynamics: The chain reaction approach. IZA Discussion Paper, 58(127). https://www.econstor.
eu/bitstream/10419/2470/1/dp127.pdf
Spulbăr, C. y Niţoi, M. (2013). Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania over the period 2001 to 2012: A BVAR analysis. Analele Stiintifice Ale Universitatii Al I Cuza Din Iasi - Sectiunea Stiinte Economice, 60(2), 387-398. https://doi.org/10.2478/aicue-2013-0018
Stockhammer, E. y Sturn, S. (2012). The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis. Applied Economics, 44(21), 2743-2756. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846. 2011.566199
Trpeski, P. y Tevdovski, D. (2014). NAIRU estimates in transitional economy with extremely high unemployment rate: The case of the Republic of Macedonia. Economic Annals, 60(206), 167-186. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56374/
Tvrdon, M. (2012). Estimating the regional natural rate of unemployment: The evidence from Slovakia. Recent Researches in Applied Economics and Management, 1, 302- 307. http://www.wseas.us/e-library/conferences/2013/Chania/AEBDa/AEBDa-52.pdf
Włodarczyk, P. (2017). Monetary policy transmission and the labour market in the non-eurozone visegrad group countries in 2000-2014. Evidence from a SVAR analysis. Comparative Economic Research, 20(4), 23-43. https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0026
Yamada, H. y Yoon, G. (2016). Measuring the US NAIRU as a step function. Empirical Economics, 51(4), 1679-1688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-1048-2
Zhao, H. y Hogan, V. (2011). Measuring the NAIRU - A structural VAR approach. Frontiers of Economics in China, 6(1), 76-91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-011-0123-7
Reference by
